Step 2: Theory of Change and Logic Models

Theories of change and logic models are vital to the success of your organization for a number of reasons.

Your program needs to be grounded in good theory. By developing a theory of change based on good theory, you can be assured that your program is doing your believe it is necessary to do to produce the outcomes you wish to see.
By creating a theory of change and a logic model, you make your program easier to sustain, bring to scale, and evaluate, since each step of the program - from the ideas behind it to the outcomes it hopes to provide to the resources you have to carry out the program - are clearly defined within the theory and displayed within the logic model.
Having a theory of change and a logic model makes the argument for increased funding much easier to construct, and far more compelling than if you relied only on testimonials of participants.

A theory of change helps you identify the issue(s) the program will address, the participants involved, the target audience, the context in which the program will take place, and the strategies that will be enacted to achieve specific outcomes. In other words, the theory of change identifies:

What actions
With what people
In what setting
Will produce what outcomes

Examples from Practice: Theories of Change

It is the Boys & Girls Clubs of Boston's (BGCB; www.bgcb.org) mission to 'help boys and girls, especially from disadvantaged circumstances, develop the qualities needed to become responsible citizens and leaders.'

To develop a theory of change, BGCB examined the four variables of actions, people, setting, and outcomes. Broken down it looks like:

Actions: Consistent interaction, age appropriate developmental opportunities, supportive relationships, opportunities to belong, positive social norms, opportunities for skill building.

People: Members interact with qualified caring adults.

Setting: A rich, structured environment.

Outcomes: Realization of positive developmental outcomes (educational, emotional, social physical, and moral) and ultimately to becoming responsible citizens and leaders.

Putting these together, BGCB's theory of change is:
Members' consistent interaction with qualified caring adults in a structured environment rich with age-appropriate developmental opportunities, supportive relationships, opportunities to belong, positive social norms, and opportunities for skill building, will lead to the realization of positive developmental outcomes (educational, emotional, social physical, and moral) and ultimately to those members becoming responsible citizens and leaders.

Increasingly, in addition to a theory of change, organizations have also begun to develop logic models. A logic model is a detailed flow chart of the theory of change that often includes, in addition to actions, people, setting, and outcomes, assumptions and external factors that may influence projected outcomes and processes.

Thus, the logic model is a visual representation of the theory of change that includes the resources you have to accomplish your goals.

Logic models guide your evaluation by helping you to develop evaluation questions about context, implementation, and outcomes.

When developing questions, there are several questions you should ask yourself:

Do our evaluation questions reflect the organizational mission and goals?
Do the questions reflect our program activities?
Will the questions provide answers about our program to staff, funders, and other stakeholders?
Are the questions relevant for our evaluation needs?

Once you have developed your evaluation questions, it is time to select indicators and benchmarks.

Examples from Practice: Logic Models

The following PowerPoint slide from the Boys and Girls Club of America demonstrates how they visually represented their theory of change into a logic model.
BGCB LOGIC MODEL

Tools and Resources for Developing Theories of Change and Logic Models:

Innovation Center for Community and Youth Development - Reflect and Improve:

The Reflect and Improve tool kit is a resource for community-based organizations looking to engage youth and adults in the evaluation of community and youth development initiative. These pages from the tool kit are from a section designed to help organizations develop, understand, and share their theory of change.

Also see http://www.theinnovationcenter.org.

Theory of Change: A Practical Tool for Action, Results and Learning

This document from Organizational Research Services and the Annie E. Casey Foundation provides an overview of what theories of change are, how they can be useful to a community-based organization and tools and activities to help begin to one, using examples from the Casey-funded Making Connections and SOAR projects.

http://www.aecf.org/initiatives/mc/readingroom/documents/theoryofchangemanual.pdf

Templates for Creating a Theory of Change and Logic Model
Tutoring Plus PowerPoint
This document provides templates for creating a Theory of Change and Logic Model for your program. Using the Tutoring Plus program of Cambridge as an example, the presentation offers instructions for how to undergo the process with your own program.

W.K. Kellogg Foundation - Logic Model Development Guide
Logic Model Development Guide (PDF)
This 72-page document from the W.K. Kellogg Foundation offers a comprehensive resource for community based organizations interested in creating a theory of change and a logic model. The guide walks users step-by-step through the process and includes a wide variety of examples, practical tools, and checklists for each step of the process.

University of Wisconsin - Extension
Logic Model
This website has an example of a logic model and as well tools for creating a logic model in PDF, Word and Excel formats. These tools, which come with instructions, can be downloaded and used for your organization.

University of Arizona
Developing a Theory-of-Change Logic Model For Your Program (PDF)
This 8 page document from the University of Arizona, based on the W.K. Kellogg Foundation model, has templates and instructions for creating a logic model.

Out of School Time @ Harvard Family Research Project (www.hfrp.org) Resources and Publication: Learning From Logic Models in Out-of-School Time
Learning From Logic Models in Out-of-School Time
The logic model worksheet (PDF)
The first link provides a brief primer on logic models from Harvard Family Research Project while the second link offers a worksheet that youth development organizations can use to create their own logic models. Additional information about evaluation from Harvard Family Research Project can also be gotten by subscribing for free to The Evaluation Exchange at http://www.gse.harvard.edu/hfrp/subscribe.html

THEORYOFCHANGE.ORG
THEORYOFCHANGE.ORG
This website from the Aspen Institute has a variety of information about creating theories of change. The websites offers an overview of what a theory of change is, their own method for creating theories of change, information about trainings and technical assistance, and materials for program practitioners.

Blank Logic Model
Blank Logic Model (PDF)
This worksheet developed by Social Policy Research Associates for Innovation Center for Community and Youth Development is a blank logic model that can be filled in by your organization for creating your own logic model.

Generating Evaluation Questions
Introduction to Evaluation (PDF)
This worksheet adapted by Social Policy Research Associates for Innovation Center for Community and Youth Development is a downloadable form for generating evaluation questions regarding context, implementation, and outcomes.

Making Evaluation Integral to Your Asset-Building Initiative: Employing a Theory of Action and Change
http://www.search-institute.org/research/knowledge/MakingEvaluationIntegral.html
This article by William Mesaros, Ph.D., Director of Field Research, Search Institute stresses the importance of a Theory of Change and gives several examples of them.

Connect with Others

Talk with others in the field who are doing similar work or who have experiences to share. Share your experiences in Theory of Change and Logic Models through the Practitioner Database.